Tag Archives: Mousavi

Ashura in Iran

by Rasmus Christian Elling.

Today is an important day in Iran for several reasons. It is Ashura, the culmination of the mourning rituals marked by Shiites throughout the world, remembering the martyrdom of Imam Hossein in 680 AD. It is also the 7th day after the death of the leading ‘reformist’ cleric, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. In other words, there is much at stake and emotions are high.

I wont be able to liveblog today (as you may have noticed, I’m taking some time off from the blog in order to write my thesis!); however, if you want to stay updated, I recommend Enduring America’s blog here and the New York Times’ The Lede Blog here.

Questions about the crisis in Iran, pt. 4

by Rasmus Christian Elling.

Is this a military coup against the clerics?
Ever since the ‘election results’ were announced, observers and protesters have talked about a military coup in Tehran: that the elections itself and the subsequent clampdown were part of a pre-arranged coup masterminded and executed by the Revolutionary Guards (Sepâh-e pâsdârân or IRGC).

Other speculation includes reports about support for Musavi among the powerful Revolutionary Guards (see Ebrahim Nabavi here); and about defections among Revolutionary Guards generals. However, there are no reliable sources or verifiable documentation for these claims. No doubt, some Revolutionary Guards commanders are thinking about the future of Iran these days, and whether or not they are on the winning team. However, in the words of New York Times’ MacFarquhar:

“Anyone attempting to identify divisions within the Iranian security forces that may dilute the government’s ability to stop the protests has thus far searched in vain, according to Iranian analysts and American government officials … Although outsiders may be cheering on the idea of people power, there is no sign yet that any part of the military will switch sides …”

The quite uniform response of Revolutionary Guards commanders leaves us with the impression that the Guards stand united and firm behind the government and the Leader. And it has made some serious and respected scholars talk openly about ‘the coup’. In his recent blog post, Gary Sick writes about the topic that has ‘been ignored’:

“Why did the regime resort to such a frantic manipulation of the vote when it was entirely possible that Ahmadinejad would have made a respectable showing—or possibly even have narrowly won—a fair election, and when the opposition in any event was devoted to the concept of the Islamic republic as it existed? The answer may be that the corporate entity saw this election as one of the final steps in cementing its absolute control. Accepting the Islamic republic as it is and not as they wanted it to be was simply unacceptable. The emergence of a relatively mild reformer—or even a substantial reformist vote—would undercut the kind of absolute authority that they were getting ready to assert. It would, in a word, complicate the coup that they were in the process of carrying out.”

On CNN, Fareed Zakaria and a former CIA-agent assess that there has been a military coup:

“BAER: Fareed, I’m quite sure there’s been a military coup d’etat by the Islamic revolutionary corp in Tehran. They’re taken over. And the fact that the Basij came out so quickly. They could have only done that on orders from the IRGC. The fact that Ahmadinejad’s a former IRGC officer, he has the backing of senior officers. I think what we’ve seen is a military coup against the old clerical establishment.”

He might be right. I just want to add that, that the ‘Basij came out so quickly’ doesn’t prove anything. They have been mobilized in such speedy and massive fashion several times (and of course, such mobilization is ordered by the IRGC; nothing new there) – and authorities had already before the elections announced that there would be a massive security presence.

To Ali Nader of the RAND Corporation, there is no doubt: The Revolutionary Guards are the real winners of the elections:

“The Guards indicated even before the election that they would not allow Ahmadinejad’s challenger, Mir Hussein Mousavi, to succeed. And they are willing to use any means possible, including mass arrests of opposition leaders and the use of military force against protesters, to maintain their grip on power. Iran’s ruling political elite have earned much popular hostility in the last few days, but they appear to have enough military support to withstand the protests for now. Regardless, the Islamic Republic may no longer be able to count on the people’s will to maintain its legitimacy”

Nader sees the recent re-election (which ‘depended on systematic fraud’) as a battle between the younger military elite and the older clerical elite (see also the RAND report ‘The Rise of the Pasdaran’ here). To some extent, I think he’s right: when Ahmadinejad blasted Rafsanjani and Nateq Nuri on live TV for being corrupt, he was in fact sending a stern warning to all senior clerics in Iran, and their families – not just the two mentioned.

However, I still have a hard time buying the idea, floated among some observers, that Ahmadinejad is actually in total control now, and that Khamene‘i is merely his puppet. Surely, many clerics may now be threatened by an emboldened Ahmadinejad; however, it seems to me that:
a) Ahmadinejad could not do without the clergy; he will need their religious credentials to legitimize his government;
b) that so many clerics would not stay silent if they really felt threatened; we will have to see much more criticism from Qom before I can believe that the tables have turned in such a dramatic fashion. This is not to say that there isn’t criticism from Qom – more on that later.

An interrelated question is that of ‘Ahmadinejad’s crusade’ against ‘corruption’. If Ahmadinejad were to succeed in his self-declared mission to purge out the ‘mafia’, he will of course not do so only out of pure, idealistic conviction. The wealth will go to other people in power, and whomever they may be – including the Revolutionary Guards – they will need the aura of legitimacy that only a clergy can endow the religious-political system with.

And the stakes for the Revolutionary Guards are high, as this updated backgrounder from the Council on Foreign Relations point out:

“Political clout and military might are not only attributes of today’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. It is also a major financial player. The Los Angeles Times estimated in 2007 that the group, which was tasked with rebuilding the country after the war with Iraq, now has ties to over one hundred companies that control roughly $12 billion in construction and engineering capital. Former CFR Senior Fellow Ray Takeyh has linked the guards to university laboratories, weapons manufacturers–including Defense Industries Organization–and companies connected to nuclear technology. Khalaji, of the Washington Institute, lists the Bahman Group, which manufactures cars for Mazda, among guard-owned companies. And Wehrey writes that “the IRGC has extended its influence into virtually every sector of the Iranian market.” The engineering firm Khatam al-Anbia, for instance, has been awarded over 750 government contracts for infrastructure, oil, and gas projects, he says.”

We could maybe describe this as the culmination of several years of militarization in Iranian politics, and a victory for the Revolutionary Guards establishment. Maybe we could also call the elections and the post-elections clampdown aspects of a military coup d’état. However, I still don’t think that the Guards and Ahmadinejad can survive without the sincere and voluntary support of the clergy. I might be wrong. Comments please!

Where are the ‘moderate conservatives’?
Ali Larijani – speaker of parliament, former presidential candidate and a pragmatic politician considered close to the Leader – has made several statements critical of the regime’s brutal response to the protests. He has condemned the violent attacks on Tehran University, called for investigations, stated that he would wish the Guardian Council was impartial and that Musavi should be given a chance to appear again on state-run TV.

To EurasiaNet’s reporter Yasin, Larijani – along with his brothers Sadeq and Mohammad-Javad, their cousin Ahmad Tavakolli and Ali Motahari – represents a ‘third force’ between ‘hardliners’ such as Khamene‘i and ‘progressives’ such as Musavi.

Larijani has recently made yet another interesting statement:

“A majority of people are of the opinion that the actual election results are different than what was officially announced,” Larijani said in comments posted by the Khabaronline website. “The opinion of this majority should be respected and a line should be drawn between them and rioters and miscreants.”

If Larijani is quoted correctly, it is indeed a significant statement. However, it can also be interpreted as pure opportunism – and part of the internal rivalries, as Yasin notes:

“There would appear to be an element of personal animosity at work in Ali Larijani’s relations with Ahmadinejad. Prior to becoming parliament speaker, Larijani was Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, but was pushed aside by political maneuvering carried out by the president and his neo-conservative allies, and undertaken with the backing of the supreme leader.”

Marsha B. Cohen, writing for Tehran Bureau, has a lengthy and detailed account of Larijani, which is highly recommended reading.

Another ‘moderate conservative’ is Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, former Revolutionary Guards commander and now mayor of Tehran. Qalibaf seeks to appeal to the young voters and is considered a likely future candidate for the presidency.  Qalibaf has stated that the ‘election law is flawed’, that the protest rallies should be ‘legalized’ and he has condemned the violence. However, he has of course refrained from siding with Musavi. There are now calls for Qalibaf to join the new Special Committee which the Guardians Council has created to investigate the opposition’s allegations of fraud. It remains to be seen if Qalibaf would make a difference to the work of this committee.

Ahmad Tavakolli – who is the chief of the Parliament’s Research Center, a former presidential candidate and a prominent ‘moderate conservative’ – might also have made a surprising statement; however, he allegedly did so under a pseudonym.

Ayande News, a reformist website, indicated that Tavakolli used the name ‘Javad Kargozari’ to write a piece on his website Alef News recently (however, Ayande then changed the text of their article making it unclear who is behind the article). Of course, it is impossible for me to confirm this claim.

Nonetheless, if the statement is indeed Tavakolli’s – or if it represents Tavakolli’s opinion – it is remarkable: ‘Kargozari’ severely criticizes the state-run TV & radio for ‘illegal activities’, including the showing of fake declarations of guilt by pro-Musavi protesters, introduced on TV as ‘rioters’. These ‘rioters’ have been arrested during recent protests and allegedly forced to confess to working for Iran’s foreign enemies. ‘Kargozari’ demands to know who has given the state media permission to show such illegal ‘confessions’ before the persons have even been tried in a court.

A major figure among the ‘moderate conservatives’ is of course Mohsen Reza‘i – former Revolutionary Guard commander and himself a presidential candidate who has also rejected the election results. Despite the fact that there are still reports of ‘ambiguities’ surrounding Reza‘i’s votes coming out, and despite his recent letter to the Guardian Council calling for a change in the members of the Special Committee, he has apparently withdrawn his own complaints – citing concern for the security situation.

This does not bode well for Musavi and Karubi, who are now more or less alone with their complaints.

I think that the ‘moderate conservatives’ are following a calculated effort to appear 100% loyal to the system and the Leader while using the opportunity to air their criticism of Ahmadinejad. However, this should not be interpreted as support for Musavi/Karubi or for the protest movement. The ‘moderate conservatives’ are cunning opportunists – and certainly not interested in fundamentally reforming the Islamic Republic or in putting the human rights of the Iranian people at the top of their agenda.

This ‘third force’ is concerned with its own economic interests and political power under the government of an emboldened Ahmadinejad. Nothing more, nothing less.

Iranian Presidential Elections 2009

by Rasmus Christian Elling.

With so many interesting developments in Iran right now, I will try and update this post every time I come across news, headlines and blog entries I find interesting. The elections on Friday for the Presidency of the Islamic Republic has finally heated up and the net is buzzing with interesting stuff.

Last update: Sat, June 13

As everyone is probably aware now, Mahmud Ahmadinejad has been announced the winner of the 2009 Iranian presidential elections by authorities. The ‘landslide victory’ sees Ahmadinejad winning 62.63% of over 40 million votes. The reformist-endorsed frontrunner, Musavi, gained 33.75%, Mohsen Rezai 1.73% and Mehdi Karubi 0.85%. Iran’s Supreme Leader has hailed the ‘record turnout’ of more than 80% of the eligible voters. Ahmadinejad has announced that he will speak to the people tonight.

The Interior Ministry has rejected all ‘rumors’ of fraud and has stated that it is willing to give the candidates a chance to recount all the votes.

However, Musavi and Karubi maintains that there has been widespread manipulation. Karubi has released a statement in which he states that fraud has been of such ‘ridiculous and unbelievable’ dimensions, that it is impossible to speak of. He stated that the election had been ‘engineered’ and rigged, and that he will not stay silent. ‘This is only the beginning of the story’, Karubi announced.

Musavi has called the elections for ‘a great game’ rigged in advance, and expressed his protest with ‘clear and numerous violations on the day of election’. He has stated that he ‘will not surrender’ to this dangerous scenario. Musavi promised that he will ‘reveal the secrets behind this process’ and calls on his ‘green wave’ to continue the fight against ‘traitors’. At the same time, he called on his supporters not to act ‘blindly’.

Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad-supporters took to the streets in many Iranian cities last night and today to celebrate the victory in a ‘national festival’.

The pro-Ahmadinejad website RajaNews has described the elections as Ahmadinejad’s victory over Rafsanjani. Fars has reported that Khatami, Musavi and Karubi visited Rafsanjani today for an emergency meeting. There can be no doubt that Ahmadinejad’s supporters see their victory as a crushing defeat of Rafsanjani, his family and his allies.

However, there are also numerous reports of protests in the streets of Tehran and other Iranian cities. Opposition websites, talking of a ‘coup d’état’, report fighting between protesters and anti-riot forces (pictures here and here). BBC has brought a film clip from Tehran today and there are several other similar amateur footage of what appears to be large crowds protesting the results (here and here)

Ahmadinejad-supporters state that ‘riots and unrest’ is ‘planned’ by a ‘control center’ of reformist politicians such as Mohsen Aminzadeh and Mostafa Tajzadeh. RajaNews claims that these politicians are commanding ‘rascals and scoundrels’ to create street riots in Tehran.

It is often stated that Iranian politics is full of surprises – this is certainly an understatement today.

There are and will be hundreds of different analyses and views appearing the next couple of days; however, I will not be able to do the same moment-for-moment update, I have done the last couple of days. I will certainly try to post a round-up of links later tonight. I recommend those interested to visit some of the sites mentioned in Blogroll.

Update 23: Fri, June 12

State-run media: Ahmadinejad wins with large margin

Iranian Students News Agency has announced that 30% of the ballots have been counted, and that Ahmadinejad leads with 68%, followed by Musavi with 28%. These ballots seem to be from the countryside.

UPDATE 1: IRINN has just announced 67% to Ahmadinejad, 30% to Musavi.

UPDATE 2: ISNA has announced: 66% to Ahmadinejad, 31% to Musavi, 1% to Mohsen Reza‘i and 0.8% to Mehdi Karubi. This is based on more than 21 million votes.

Update 22: Fri, June 12

Musavi AND Ahmadinejad announced as winner – and other news

Mir-Hossein Musavi has announced himself the certain winner of the elections.

IRNA, the state-run news agency, has announced Ahmadinejad the winner with a large majority of the votes.

Tehran’s governor has announced that any political gathering tonight is illegal.

Pro-reformist news agency Khordâd-e now alleges that Tehran’s public prosecutor has threatened to shut down the publishing houses of those newspapers who will print Musavi’s victory in tomorrow’s newspapers.

The first official statistics is from North Korea where 15 Iranians voted. Ahmadinejad won.

Update 21: Fri, June 12

Voting ends

The Interior Minister of Iran has announced that voting ends at 22 PM (in five minutes). This command seems to be in contradiction with earlier announcements that province governors were allowed to keep voting stations open until the last voter…

‘Attack’ on Musavi offices etc. – More reports of fraud

A violent attack on Musavi’s headquarters in Qeytariyeh, Tehran, has been reported by pro-Musavi web sites. Furthermore, pro-Musavi websites report of widespread vote fraud and manipulation in Esfahan.

Update 20: Fri, June 12

Election time prolonged

Iranian TV has just announced that the Interior Minister has allowed the provincial governors to keep voting stations upon until the last voter has cast his/her vote.

UPDATE: A spokesman for the Guardians Council has announced that there will be printed more ballots.

Update 19: Fri, June 12

Historic turnout – Rumors of fraud – Early predictions

By all accounts – state-run media, oppositional web sites, eye witness accounts and Western journalists’ reports – there has been a historic turnout for today’s elections in Iran. There are many unverified rumors of fraud and manipulation from inside and outside Iran. There are also reports of overcrowded voting stations and a lack (!) of ballot papers.

As far as I can gather (my connection to IRINN is down now), voting stations are due to close right now (9 PM Tehran time). On pro-Musavi websites, commentators have already announced a historic victory for Musavi, even breaking a 30 million vote record. I haven’t yet seen Ahmadinejad-supporters announce a victor, not even on Raja News (as could have been expected).

UPDATE: The semi-official pro-Ahmadinejad news agency Fars has announced that ‘a justice-seeking candidate’ has won win 60% of the votes.

Update 18: Fri, June 12

Voting time prolonged

The time for voting has been prolonged until 8 PM (yes; I have noticed that it is now 8 PM in Iran – but TV has not announced that voting has ended yet…). 20 million ballots have been cast so far, according to Guardians Council via IRNA.

UPDATE: State television has just announced that voting will continue for one more hour (until 9 PM Tehran time).

Update 17: Fri, June 12

Police forces: Show of power under way in Tehran

IRNA reports that a spokesman of the Niru-ye entezâmi police force has just announced a major maneuver in Tehran’s squares. This ‘Power Maneuver’ is aimed at securing ‘order’ until all votes have been counted. He added that so far, there had been no signs of unrest.

Update 16: Fri, June 12

‘Attacks’ on reformist websites – ‘Fraud’ in expatriate elections

Amir Kabir University Newsletter, autnews.us, reports a ‘new wave of filtering’ against critical websites such as that of the ‘1 Million Signature Campaign for Womens Rights’, the pro-reformist Âyandeh News, the pro-Karubi Tribun and the pro-Musavi Nowruz. There are still rumors of the text message system being closed down.

The are also several reports/rumors of ‘fraud’ at voting stations for Iranians in Germany, Dubai and Malaysia. I still haven’t had time to read the ‘reports’ in detail.

Update 15: Fri, June 12

Candidates vote – and other news

Mir-Hosein Musavi: “Until the end of voting, we will all stay awake (/alert)”

Mohsen Rezai: “After the elections, fraternity and serious cooperations must be established” (Source: Tabnak).

Mehdi Karubi: “These elections are exceptional” (Source: IRNA).

It seems as if text messaging services have been shut down in many places (or at least by some companies). Pro-Rafsanjani website: ‘Ahmadinejad’s government has closed SMS text message services’ (Source: Aftab). According to ILNA, Musavi has demanded the services be opened again.

It seems that controversial Grand Ayatollah Montazeri will leave his semi-official home arrest to vote, for the first time in twenty years, today. He has apparently stated he will vote for Karubi. UPDATE: Apparently, Montazeri’s son, Hojjatoleslam Ahmad Montazeri, has rejected rumors that the dissident cleric is voting for Karubi.

When Rafsanjani had cast his vote: ‘There is no better trust than the vote of the people’.

The election committee: Any kind of political gathering is forbidden until the results of the elections has been announced (Source: IRNA).

Ayatollah Jennati, after casting his vote: “The Guardians Council will execute its supervision duty with force and power” (Source: ISNA).

(Pro-Ahmadinejad) Fars News: Participation in villages will pass 90% (source: Fars).

Update 14: Fri, June 12

Khamene‘i votes – Revolutionary Guard warns

Khamene‘i has just cast his vote and held a short speech. I only caught some of it on a poor online TV connection from Iran, but as far as I gathered he warned against lies being distributed by SMS.

Update: Khamene‘i: “Hopefully the best candidate will  be elected”; “Some elements may try to create tensions”; rejects rumors that he has answered Rafsanjani’s letter.

The Revolutionary Guards have released a strong-worded communique. Without directly referring to Musavi’s letter to Khamene‘i (see below), the letter is clearly aimed at Musavi, whom the Guard has ‘reserved its right’ to complain over. The Guards strongly reject this candidate (Musavi)’s claim that Basij and Revolutionary Guards will interfere illegally in the elections as ‘baseless accusations’. The Guards claimed that they had tried to overlook ‘wicked actions’ in the past, but that the latest actions were too much to disregard. The Guards were particularly annoyed with Musavi’s claim that there is a developing split between the commanders and the ‘healthy body’ of Basijis and Guards (Source: Fars News).

Update 13: Thur, June 11

Quiet before the storm?

In Iran, it seems like quiet before the storm (as Robert Dreyfus describes here). No campaigning was allowed on this the latest day before elections. Maybe now is a good time to remember that even though the election frenzy has been of historic proportions this week, nothing is certain. Even though overconfident supporters on both sides have prematurely claimed a massive victory, there is still good reason to believe that the two main candidates will have to enter a second round.

Ahmadinejad is still the hero of many millions of Iranians, and he is supported by significant forces across Iran. Musavi has only recently become the front figure of what is often described as the ‘reformists’, but as I have written earlier, he does not define himself as a reformist – at least not in the Khatamian sense.

If voters do turn out, as expected by most observers, in huge numbers – and if there is no serious unrest or overt military intervention – there will certainly be one winner: the Islamic Republic of Iran, once again endowed with legitimacy through public participation.

Update 12: Thur, June 11

Musavi’s letter to Khamene‘i – Fears of unrest

Musavi has written a letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. In the letter, he asks the Leader to intervene to assure that no official bodies manipulate the elections. Musavi writes that the recent election frenzy shows that there will be a massive turnout for the elections, which will strengthen national unity and give Iran international respect. Nonetheless, Musavi warns, some ‘official institutions are not welcoming this pure, popular movement’.

As examples he enumerates: 1) Members of the Guardian Council and election supervisors have openly supported Ahmadinejad; 2) Interior Ministry has violated and interfered in Musavi’s right to station his own representatives at certain polling stations; 3) There is evidence of intereference by some Basij and Revolutionary Guard personnel; 4) The current president has used government facilities and resources in his campaigning and tours around Iran. Musavi finally calls on Khamenei to use his powers to ensure that officials and election supervisors stay neutral.

Furthermore, the internet is full of rumors. It is of course impossible to keep track of them and to verify them, so I will only deal with them briefly:

From the ‘reformist’/anti-Ahmadinejad coalition, there are reports/rumors of secret plans for widespread Basij/Revolutionary Guard interference in the elections and the possibility of a military coup d’etat. Musavi’s own election headquarters have issued another letter, in which Musavi warns of planned attempts to create unrest and riots in order to destroy the ‘reformists” image. Another rumor states that Ahmadinejad will be ‘assassinated’ in order to create an emergency situation in which the president’s supporters can take over.

From the Ahmadinejad front, there are reports/rumors of plans to use a Musavi defeat as pretext for launching a Western-backed ‘velvet revolution’. The pro-Ahmadinejad Raja News reports that after Rafsanjani’s letter, Musavi-supporters are violently attacking Ahmadinejad-supporters and normal people. There is a sense on hard line and pro-Ahmadinejad weblogs that foreign powers are planning to take over Iran through Musavi; and that Ahmadinejad’s victory will be a ‘final’ answer to Rafsanjani. Indeed, the elections are now often described as a showdown between Khamenei/Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani/Musavi.

No matter what, there will be massive security measures for tomorrow’s elections. The security head of the elections has announced there will be 20,000 security force members in Tehran alone, and Shahâb News has reported that 22 army helicopters will assist across the country.

Update 11: Thur, June 11

Abbas Palizdar apologizes to Rafsanjani

Palizdar – who became known last year when he spoke at an Iranian university as a representative of Ahmadinejad’s government and accused a wide range of high-ranking clerics for mafia-like corruption, and who was then imprisoned and sentenced – has allegedly written an apology to Rafsanjani.

This is of course hard to verify, but several websites have reported on the letter. Apparently, the letter was first published on the website of Mehdi Khaz‘ali, allegedly Palizdar’s close friend. In the letter, Palizdar takes back his accusations against Rafsanjani, claiming that Rafsanjani’s family was not even in the files he was investigating for fraud and corruption. ‘I mentioned [Rafsanjani's corruption] without any documentation, based on unconfirmed hearsay from those close to Ahmadinejad’, Palizdar writes. ‘Therefore, I apologize to His Highness with this letter’.

Update 10: Wed, June 10

Ahmadinejad defends himself on TV, claims opponents rely on ‘Zionist’ statistics

Iranian state-run media gave Ahmadinejad 20 minutes of live TV to ‘defend himself against accusations’ tonight. He stated that not only himself, but all of Iran has been insulted by his opponents. Ahmadinejad defended himself against his opponents’ main slogan: that Ahmadinejad is a liar. He stated that he is courageous and never afraid. He repeated all his main statistic ‘evidence’, showing colorful charts, rhetorically asking ‘is this a lie, is that a lie?’, finally concluding that ‘no, they are not lies’.

He argued that, just like Imam Ali, it is his duty to expose anyone who has taken from the public treasury (read: Rafsanjani). Ahmadinejad also defended himself against his critics’ outrage with his attempt to question Musavi’s wife’s academic credentials by saying that this is not a personal matter of the Musavi family.

Instead, Ahmadinejad stated that his opponents had manipulated his words in videos circulating in Iran. He stated that his opponents had used statistics from Transparency International to prove that corruption has gone up in Iran; but that Transparency International bases its surveys on ‘Zionist’ companies. He blasted his opponents for ‘hitting the nation in the head’ with information obtained from ‘four Zionist companies’. Indeed, Ahmadinejad declared himself the ‘flag-bearer of the fight against corruption’.

Ahmadinejad said that his opponents knew they had already lost the elections, and he called on people to maintain their calm. He apologized that he didn’t have time to visit all provinces, and thanked everyone. He finished with a poem by medieval poet Hafez:

Gar bovad ‘omr be meykhâne resam bâr degar – bejoz az khedmate rendân nakonam kâre degar

(something along the lines of: ‘If my life permits me to return to that wine-house again / I will not do anything else but serve the astute’ [sorry for uninspiring translation!]). And then, Ahmadinejad finished with: ‘Be proud, my nation. Wa‘s-salâm w ‘aleykom wa rahmatollâh’.

Update 9: Wed, June 10

Violence in Shiraz

It is reported on Twitter and on reformist websites that ‘plain-clothed’ supporters of Ahmadinejad have violently attacked a pro-Musavi rally. The pro-reformist web site mowj.ir has reported that police does not try to prevent these attacks. Allegedly, around ten people have been wounded and the offices of the Campaign of Support for Khatami and Musavi have been raided. The web site claims that 3,000 Ahmadinejad supporters who waited for Ahmadinejad at a sports stadium tonight had gone into the streets to fight Musavi-supporters when they heard Ahmadinejad had cancelled his appearance at the stadium.

Some pictures of female pro-Musavi supporters in Shiraz can be seen here.

Update 8: Wed, June 10

Ahmadinejad ‘fleeing’ university

This video allegedly shows Ahmadinejad leaving Sharif Technological University’s mosque in great haste as pro-Musavi students shout ‘Liar! Liar’ and ‘Ahmadi, bye bye!’.

Update 7: Wed, June 10

Rafsanjani meets with Khamene‘i

The pro-Rafsanjani news website Âftâb claims that Rafsanjani had a meeting with Iran’s Leader last night after his historic letter against Ahmadinejad appeared. The website did not describe what happened but quoted an ‘informed source’ that Rafsanjani had expressed his ‘complete satisfaction’ with the meeting that had been ‘constructive’.

Update 6: Wed, June 10

Some interesting headlines from Iranian media this morning

Âftâb News (pro-Rafsanjani): ‘Musavi will win in first round’ (note: This news agency has announced that an ‘opinion poll’ by ‘a university group’ last week showed that Musavi will win with 54% of the votes in the first round of the presidential elections on Friday).

Irân (pro-Ahmadinejad daily): ‘The president, before a magnificent gathering of people in Mazandaran: The country is not in danger – the interests of those who speak the language of power is in danger’ (link). (Note: This is one of Ahmadinejad’s responses to Rafsanjani’s letter).

IRNA (state news agency): ‘Ahmadinejad: “The revolution is strengthened with the punishment of those who rob the public treasury”‘ (link). (Note: this is another response to the letter).

E‘temâd (pro-reformist daily): ‘A reformist tsunami in the streets of Tehran’ (link).

Jomhuri-ye Eslâmi (often pro-Rafsanjani daily): ‘Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi: “Candidates and their supporters should not make statements that can threaten the whole system [of the Islamic Republic] or Islam”‘ (link).

Kayhân (state-run daily, seen as Khamene‘i’s mouthpiece): ‘This warning is serious: The last scenario act of the extremists [i.e. Musavi and Karubi supporters]: Unrest after defeat’ (link). (Note: it is alleged that Musavi/Karubi-supporters have realized they will be defeated by Ahmadinejad, and are now planning widespread riots and unrest).

Raja News Agency (pro-Ahmadinejad): ‘Ayatollah [Mohammad] Yazdi in response to Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s letter: “By God’s grace, the country has a Leader [Khamene‘i] who is like the Imam [Khomeini]” – “Those who provoke unrest and riots are either traitors or ignorants”‘ (link). (Note: In short, this prominent cleric states that he does not see any of those great dangers Rafsanjani has alluded to in his letter).

Update 5: Wed, June 10

Pictures from Khatami’s pro-Musavi rally in Mashhad

More pictures here.

Update 4: Tue, June 9

Special air time for Ahmadinejad

Even though the debate series between the candidates is over, Sedâ-va-Simâ (the state-run TV & Radio) has decided to give the current president an additional 45 minutes of live air time tomorrow (Wednesday). Âyande News claims that Ahmadinejad actually stayed behind in the studio after his heated debate with Mohsen Reza‘i yesterday to record his own ‘one-man debate’.

Update 3: Tue, June 9

Yâs-e no daily once again suspended

This afternoon, the reformist daily Yâs-e no was suspended. The daily, which is allegedly privately funded, has been closed several times before. It has recently been supportive of Mir-Hosein Musavi, and its latest front page before it was closed today (less than 72 hours before the elections) carried a picture of Musavi with his arms in the air and a huge headline stating ‘We are winning’.

Update 2: Tue, June 9

Clear support for Ahmadinejad

State-owned and Leader-controlled daily Kayhân‘s front page today further testifies the support Ahmadinejad is receiving from high up. The headline speaks of ‘the nation’s unprecedented, million-man tsunami’ in support of the president.

Kayhan 'Tsunami'

Update 1: Tue, June 9

Historic letter from Rafsanjani to Khamene‘i

In a strong-worded letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene‘i, former president and powerful cleric Ayatollah Hashemi-Rafsanjani has demanded an inquiry into ‘accusations’ and ‘insults’ against leading figures in the Islamic Republic.

Rafsanjani is referring to Ahmadinejad’s recent spate of allegations against Rafsanjani, Nateq Nuri and other prominent clerics. The current president has accused Rafsanjani and his family for acting like a mafia and for supporting Musavi in his attempt to remove Ahmadinejad from power. Rafsanjani has written that Ahmadinejad’s accusations are also aimed at the Leader himself and at Imam Khomeini. He has also written that Ahmadinejad’s statement are ‘full of wrong claims’ and ‘pure lies'; and that popular outrage with ‘existing conditions’ is now being displayed on the ‘squares, streets and universities’.

This is a very interesting development. It is normally assumed that the Leader indirectly supports Ahmadinejad and this seems like an attempt to ‘warn’ Khamene‘i of Ahmadinejad’s power that can even threaten such high-ranking figures as Rafsanjani – and therefore also, one day, the Leader. Furthermore, there can, with this letter, no longer be any doubt that Rafsanjani is throwing all his weight behind Musavi.

On the other hand, Ahmadinejad can use this letter to prove his ‘conspiracy theory’ that he is actually fighting against ‘three governments’ (that of Musavi, when he was prime minister; and those of Rafsanjani and Khatami, when they were presidents). It may thus also have a reverse effect.

You can read the full text [Persian] here. On the importance of the ‘Rafsanjani Mafia’-theme in Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric, read this [English]. UPDATE: TehranBureau has another excellent piece, this time on Rafsanjani’s letter.